CREEM 2019

XXVI Congresso Nacional de Estudantes de Engenharia Mecânica

ANÁLISE PREDITIVA DA PRODUÇÃO DE ALÚMINIO PRIMÁRIO NO MERCADO BRASILEIRO

Submission Author: Paulo Franklin Tavares Santos , PB
Co-Authors: Paulo Franklin Tavares Santos, Matheus Francisco de Oliveira, José Aprígio Carneiro Neto, Sérgio Silva, Guilherme Melo Henriques, Joao Santos
Presenter: Paulo Franklin Tavares Santos

doi://10.26678/ABCM.CREEM2019.CRE2019-0256

 

Abstract

The objective of the present work is to construct the forecast models from Holt-Winters time series for aluminum production data provided by ABAL - Brazilian Aluminum Association. The research was guided through a case study, through which data were collected on its income statements between the production exercises from 2002 to 2018, taking into account the production per month of each year referred to production. The results showed that the two models did not exceed amounts that did not represent the reality in which the company is facing the market, which was verified when comparing the actual result of 2019 with the predicted values. The conclusions indicated that the application of the model is adequate for predicting the result and that it obtained a low deviation rate in percentage.

Keywords

Holt-Winters, Previsão, séries temporais, Estatística, Alumínio

 

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